Thursday, 18 July 2019
I've been invested in Keppel DC for some time now.
It's IPO is December 2014 was a first for data center REITs in Asia, and from the off I liked it. Since 2015, I've picked up shares in bundles and at the moment I hold around 52,000 of them.
To date this counter has been good to me. Currently, it's up about 80% and for the first time I'm feeling that perhaps the time is right to take the cash. As I've blogged about before, I try not to let emotions influence my investment decisions, but in this case I am wavering...
I should be! It's 80% up in the port. and this is a ton of cash that could be thrown somewhere else for a hell of a lot more yield that DC is currently offering (3.1%) That said, everything does seem to be stored on cloud these days, and I can't see this changing soon.
So what's a man to do when there's a recession on the horizon?
In cases like this I like to follow what I will call for the sake of chit chat and sounding smart: 'The Emotive/Rational Approach'.
What the living bejesus is this I hear you ask?
Well, as investors, unless we have the mind of Buffet. Lynch or any of the other investing greats we're pretty much doomed to let emotions rear their ugly heads and reek havoc sporadically in our portfolios.
This has happened to me a couple of times.
For example, late in 2018 I was reading tons of stuff about block chain technology etc. and got a bit freaked out. I had lots of DBS shares, and, of course (in my freaked head), they would be doomed once this new technology took over. I've still no idea why I acted as I did but I sold 90% of my DBS shares in a whirlwind of speculation and brow knitting.
'The big banks are fucked, I tell you' my mind screamed this at me, urging me to take action there and then.
And that's what I did. I sold almost all of my DBS, and you know what... I got lucky. This was in Oct 2018 when it was trading at $106. Thus, I exited with a large paper gain, but screwed up my long term plans to use DBS as a key blue-chip dividend player over 20 years.
So there you go... Probably the most stupid thing I have have done investment wise, but thanks to positive market sentiment I got away with it.
So anyway back to 'The Emotive/Rational Approach'. As you can seen from my horror story, acting on emotion is ridiculous and dangerous in investing. I learned an important lesson from this blunder and will not ever again allow myself to act like a man who take investing advise from a 14 year old.
'So son... This is the deal. Listen a minute. Blockchain is going to take over soon and banks will be made irrelevant in our current economic system, what do you think?'
'What...? Eh...? What's... Yeah, dad whatever, sell them and relax. All will be sweet.'
What I find works better is allowing emotion to guide me towards certain sector/area. For when there's hype and emotional charge around something, it acts as an impetus for me to be bothered reading about it.
As I've blogged about numerous times, I don't find investing particularly interesting, especially reading annual reports and other heavy waffle. My interests lie more in literature, meditation, music, art and the history of ideas... Forgive me if investing isn't my first love; it's merely a means to an end - a comfortable retirement.
That said, once emotion guides us towards something (as it has with me and gold recently) it's important to take a step back and think clearly and rationally. This involves reading loads of boring stuff, watching suits on Youtube throw their hat into the investing ring and, of course, breathing in the goodness of http://www.sginvestbloggers.com/ which is, if I'm honest, the best place to spend your time in blogsphere. Big up to the sginvestbloggers!
Reading and digesting various opinions about a stock allows the emotional fizz to dissipate. Then and only then are you in a position to think about buying - or selling - a stock.
This bring me back to the big question... Should I sell DC REIT when it's up 80%
Emotion whispers into one ear, 'Yeah, why not.'
Rationality whispers into the other, 'What! Sell! Are you crazy? Think about the future of cloud over the next 5-10 years; think of the tailwinds my friend.'
Anyway, what will be will be...
What do you all think? To sell or not to sell?
Wednesday, 17 July 2019
June was a bumper month for dividends that's for sure. Being a blog that circumnavigates the area of all things dividend, I though I'd share a few details with you:
Total dividends collected in June = $12,226
My biggest contributing counters were as follows:
-Ascendas H Trust
-Accordia Golf Trust
I'm confident in all these counters moving forward bar one - Starhub. I really don't think it can sustain their dividend at the current rate, but as things stand, I'm in too deep to let go of the counter. Thus, I'm just going to ride the waves and see if the CEO can wave his magic wand and make wonders happen. I'm well aware this is not sound investment chat; however, Starhub is the only share I have which I speak about in this way, so forgive me.
Overall, I'm happy with June's harvest and it goes along way to pushing me towards beating 2018 dividend total of almost $40,000. Read about it here and here if you have a moment.
After the first 2 quarters of 2019 my dividend grand total stands at $22, 522 meaning that I'm on track to beat last years total as things stand. By how much requires a mathematical calculation that is beyond me at this un-Godly hour of the morning. In this spirit, let's sit back and let time do its thing. Let's wait and see if this compounding gig, aided by mother time, will caress my nest egg in the the right spots. I sure hope she does.
Until then, have a delicious day folks.
PS: Would anyone else in this community of folks be interested in starting a monthly podcast of all things investment etc.? I've been looking for podcasting opportunities for some time now. If any of you would like to give it a crack, please leave a comment below and perhaps we can get the ball rolling.
Saturday, 13 July 2019
Aha! It's 05:50 in the morning here in 'X' and I'm typing like a man possessed. I don't now what it is about early mornings, maybe it's a combination of a clear head and the cool air, but whatever it is my finger don't half go tippity tap.
I just noticed it has been a year now since I first started this blog as an experiment. So happy birthday to me!
What kind of experiment is this blog and why did I start it?
This is a good question. The reason is I need something to force me to read about finance.
You see, not only am I a lazy man at heart, my natural reading inclinations, if left to their own devices, drift towards fiction. Fiction, in fact, is my first love, and if I'm honest, reading about stocks etc. comes way down the list. Thus, I thought it would be a good idea to write a blog from the prospective of an investor who doesn't enjoy investing. From the perspective of a person who needs coaxing to pick up the finance section of the newspaper. In the past, the finance section was what I used to clean the windows and to wrap fragile objects. The thought of reading it sent numbing chills through my entire being.
This is my position.
This may shock some of you out there who are new to my blog, but for those of you who read it every week, this will come as no surprise.
I force myself every Sunday to blast out a post whether I've got sometime to say or not as I find writing to be a meditative exercise, one which after a few minutes of grappling my thoughts, I usually follow through on.
Getting into the flow like this feels good and calms me down. Now, this is not to say that the words themselves are worth reading - far from it. I once heard the late, great Christopher Hitchens talking about his latest book at the time 'God is not Great'. In the interview the journalist said 'Everyone has a book inside them, don't they?' Hitchens, in his own smooth and wry way replied, 'Yes, perhaps they do. But for most this is where it should stay.' This is true of this blog for sure, but fuck it. Blogging is a self-indulgent practice, so if you think it's crap, that's okay by me. If, on the other hand, it makes you giggle or - God forbid - you get something from it - then that's okay, too.
The words I see on the screen in front of me are not really for anyone else. This could, in fact, be a personal diary, for I act anonymously and have no purpose to achieve recognition or fame. My motives are pure. I type because I like to type. I need a reason to read financial articles, otherwise my dosing rods will point me in the direction of Charles Dickens or David Foster Wallace (I joke you not) So without this blog I would have little or no interest in investing, and actually I need to keep one eye on finance. My portfolio is worth about $1,000,000 Singaporean, so it's safe to say - like the Yanks do - that I've got some skin in the game.
I wonder if I'm the only blogger in the http://www.sginvestbloggers.com/ community who writes for this reason? Probably... Anyway, who cares? I write because I write and what more is there to say?
Since this is my blog's birthday, I thought I'd get back on track and talk a little about the stocks on my radar etc. because otherwise I'll have no readers at all. In fact, if you have read this far already, hats off to you. You're an avid reader, one with patience outstripping your peers in this frantic world of skimming and scanning we inhabit.
I'm currently looking at Wilmar, ITV (UK), Tracker Fund of Hong Kong and Accordia Golf Trust.
Wilmar is defensive and solid. Is a growth and dividend play in the long run.
ITV (UK) this stock pays a good dividend and would diversify my portfolio. Also, I think market sentiment is overly pessimistic on it considering the good things it's currently doing.
Tracker fund of Hing Kong as I would quite like to get some exposure to China over the next 5 to 10 years.
Accordia Golf Trust because of it's dividend and I think it's a good long term play.
Okay, now that's all from me this week. I want to once again say happy birthday to me and this strange blog.
All the best, party people.
Sunday, 7 July 2019
As my regular reader know, I have a dividend portfolio made up of mainly SGX listed stocks and REITs that generated almost $40,000 last year.
When my account has $15,000, I deploy this back into the portfolio rain or shine. I feel that by not trying to time the market over a minimum 20 year period I should have a big enough pot to retire.
Presently, I'm having trouble decided where to allocate the latest bunch of juicy dividends. These are strange times in the markets with blue chip REITS overvalued, blue chip stock largely the same, gold is pricey and, to top it all off, a global recession is on the horizon. So, what to do in this situation?
I don't want to sit on he sideline holding cash, for this goes against my investment plan. I
d rather be in the game than out no matter what happens and collect dividends. But at this particular juncture, I'm really stuck.
The best I can come up with is defensive stocks such as Sheng Siong or Thaibev. That said, I'm already heavily invested in both.
Any thoughts people?
Saturday, 22 June 2019
Years ago I bought into Starhub and Singpost with a buy to hold strategy believing they would be good counters to rely on come rain or shine.
Now I know I was wrong.
Presently, Star hub is down almost 58% and Singpost 35%. Luckily, I took relatively small positions in these companies at the time, so the damage isn't too bad, but still their presence in my portfolio does give me cause for concern.
Sure, I should have had a stop loss on the counters, but this is easy to say in hindsight. There are massive black clouds hanging over both companies and more unease brooding on the horizon, so what's a man to do? Sell and take the hit or hang on with crossed fingers and see if they can turn things around?
I've been deliberating this for months now and still I'm undecided. One moment, I'm ready to hit the sell button and then a voice tells me never to sell on emotion. However, the longer I think about the situation and the future, the less I feel emotion is the causal factor. The fact is that both companies are in the shit.
Starhub's price has taken a nosedive and to prevent an outright investor stampede they have hiked up their dividend to unsustainable levels. We all know what's going to happen when they have to cut this dividend. So, is there any way for the company to Houdini their way out of this hole? With the new (albeit smaller than previously expected) 4th telco joining the party how are Starhub going to reverse the trend?
The same applies to Singpost. They are in a tight spot, but are at least trying to diversify, but will it be enough?
Let me know your thoughts people.
Saturday, 15 June 2019
Hands up if you think global markets are going to crash in the next 12 months?
If been trying to keep my emotions in check with regard to this, but I can't help noticing an ever darkening cloud overhead.
What's one to do then? Sell and run to the hills? Load up on gold? Admit yourself to a mental hospital and ride the wave?
Who the hell knows eh?
To be honest, I've been deliberating making 10% of my portfolio gold. I joke you not. For me, it's more about hedging and protecting my cash which is in a currency I'd rather not reveal.
I know gold doesn't pay a dividend and you have to pay for storage etc. but I still feel that when the shit hits the fan and there's blood in the alleyways, it'll be the gold holders smiling and sleeping comfortably, while everyone else goes grey and drinks vodka by the pint glass.
What do you think then folks? To gold or not to gold - that is the question.
I've even been thinking of putting about 1% of my portfolio in Bitcoin as well.
OK, so right now the majority of the world's wealth is in the hands of the Baby-Boomers, and all the way through their investing careers they heard the same thesis: when the markets crash - hold gold. Agreed? Yes, it's true. That said, think ahead...
Once all the wealth begins to transfer from the Baby-Boomers to Gen X and eventually the Millennials, we are going to see something new. The Millennial especially have grown up with Cryptos being the norm, and for many of them Cryptos are the true alternative to cash. Thus, where to you think these newly cashed up people will turn in 15 years time when a crash threatens the markets? Gold? No way! Gold will be for old folk!
So, I think there's a clear case for buying up a small proportion of Bitcoin and holding it for a couple of decades.
As for now though, I think 10% of the portfolio in gold is the way to go.
What do you all think?
Saturday, 1 June 2019
Just like Mona, I, too, have a half smile on my face.
Alright folks, how have you been? It's been a busy few months at work and hence my absence from the blogging scene. But, now I'm back with a vengeance and ready for action.
The total value of my portfolio now stands at $986,000
This is with a total of $959,000 invested.
Thus, there's a paper gain of almost $30,000
Those of you who have read my blog before know my main portfolio focus is income, but that's not to say I don't have growth stocks as well. I do.
My growth stocks include the following:
SAT currently up 59%
SGX currently up 9%
Sheng Siong currently up 18%
Thai Bev currently down -1%
Wilmar Inter currently up 2%
I'm presently happy enough with the performance of these shares. Thai Bev is down slightly, yes, but I don't think this is a lot to worry about in the long run. Their purchases in Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam will hold them in good stead for the years to come.
Also, most of the REIT/Trusts in my portfolio are doing well also.
Aims currently up 5%
Ascendas currently up 16%
Ascendas H Trust currently up 6%
Ascott currently up 13%
Capital Com currently up 16%
Capital Mall currently up 22%
Fraser Com T currently up 9%
That said, it's not all good in the portfolio, for their are a few counters severely holding back the overall performance. Namely...
Accordia Golf Trust currently down 9%
First REIT currently down 9%
Global Investments currently down 11%
Singpost currently down 37%
Singtel currently down 18%
Starhub currently down 59%
I feel Accordia will be OK in the long run and it's big dividend offsets paper lossed.
First REIT is an unknown. I'm thinking about reducing my stake in it next week.
I feel Global Investments will be OK in the long run.
Singpost is a smaller holding so I'm not overly concerned.
Singtel will be fine in the long run and, as we all know, it pays a handsome dividend.
Starhub is again a small holding (thank goodness) but it's painful all the same. Can they pull things around? I honestly don't think they can. Thus, I'm biding my time and waiting for some positive news to bump the share price up before I sell. Of course, this day night never come especially if they cut their current unsustainable dividend. I'm suitably nervous about this counter.
In 2018 I earned almost $40,000 in dividends, and I'm expected more from 2019.
Therefore, my portfolio is a mixed bag at the moment with the Telcos inflicting more pain than is necessary. REITS are still doing nicely as are the growth stocks.
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