Friday 13 March 2020

Corona Musings

Well, well, well...

I always get up early on Saturday to work a half day and then go run in the mountains. And today is no different. What can be better than sitting in a quiet kitchen sipping hot coffee and catching up on current affairs? Well usually this is the case, but after reading a few articles on the BBC site and scrolling through Facebook, I don't feel so well.

Fear, Corona, crash, recession, depression, sell off, panic, shut down, 1929, pandemic, lies, lock down, decimated. 

These are just a few of the words jumping out at me as the birds are tweeting outside my window oblivious to how weird the world has got over the past few weeks.

Not long ago people marched the streets, chests puffed out, dreaming about what they would do in their retirement. Minds drifted away to a velvety, warm place, a cruise ship perhaps; an all inclusive package. Yes, a lovely 33 night cruise from Singapore to Europe, stopping off in Phuket, Yangon, Mumbai and then on to Athens, sipping a Pina Colada on the upper desk. How does this little fantasy feel on the 14th of March 2020? Are you still getting those tingles of excitement down your spine?

I think not.

So, anyway, here we are. The Singapore market has bombed and many have either sold the lot or are sitting nervously in the dark wondering what happen to their paper gains. What both these groups have in common is they haven't got a clue what to do next. The options are as follows as I see it and I will divide them into two groups:

Group 1: Government will get Corona under control and then the global economy will start to recover.

1. If you sold out, try to buy in on a V shaped recovery once governments get Corona under control.

2. If you didn't sell out, wait for the V shaped recovery once once governments get Corona under control.

3. If you have cash and you didn't sell out, pump it in once once governments get Corona under control.

4. If you have cash because you sold out, pump it in once once governments get Corona under control.

Group 2: Governments eventually get Corona under control (albeit much later than previously thought) and their is a massive global recession.

1. If you sold out, you'll want to wait and see what the global recession looks like before you buy. Things should go even lower.

2. If you didn't sell out, you better get yourself strapped in for a bumpy ride, or even better, lose the password to your investment account and stop reading the news for 5 years.

3. If you have cash and didn't sell out, things could be worse. There'll be bargains to be had.


Which group do you belong to? I'm in group 2 no.3. I have cash to play with and I sold nothing in the sell off. I plan to stay invested for at least another 20 years, so I selling and paying tons of fees doesn't appeal to me right now. 

What about you?

1 comment:

  1. HIya! I'm in the same boat as you are ... having cash and didn't sell out. I did sell some and locked in some profit before the madness began. But it was for taking profit, not out of fear or desperation. Selling out now would be stupid, if not downright foolish. I'm watching the market but not "moving my soldiers" just yet. I will recruit "new soldiers" every month, and add them to the formation. I'm still undecided as to when to launch the battle plan. PM Lee said to expect the virus situation to last a year ... will just have to pay attention to the "sign" of the times. Thanks for your write-up.

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January 2021 Portfolio Update